From here: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/image002-11.png we get monthly Melbourne house price changes: -1.2, -1.6, -1.8, -1.2, -2.1, -2.1, -2.7.
That adds up to a whopping -12% for the first 7 months of 2011, some of which we have to account for normal winter seasonality.
Regardless, that $600,000 new year's purchase now has a market value of $528,000.
Are we in "crash" territory yet?
This weekend's auction results - the first week of Spring's - don't seem to indicate any change of pattern. The clearance rate was 57%, according to the REIV:
This week: 470
Last week: 598
This time last year: 680
S Sold at Auction: 234
SB Sold before Auction: 33
SA Sold after Auction: 1
Passed in: 202
Passed in on vendor's bid: 140
Postponed: 4
Withdrawn: 1
Auctions with no result: 63
Clearance rate: 57%
But, adjusted for reality:
Sold: 234 + 33 + 1 = 268
Not Sold: 202 + 4 + 1 + 63 = 270
The clearance rate is just under 50%, so expect house prices to continue to fall.
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