Support Socialism - Save in Fiat

Your country needs you!

Your government has commissioned an exorbitant number studies, at great expense, to prove, beyond any reasonable bureaucratic doubt, that socialism is the way forward for this once great nation.

You must volunteer to support socialism, before we force you to. Save in fiat today.  

 

It is only through the continued support of the fiat collecting savers that your government can continue to grow beyond the limits enabled by taxation alone.

The benefits of saving in fiat are: 1) Help prevent price inflation by not spending fiat. The importance of hoarding fiat cannot be understated, and even more so as price inflation becomes apparent. 2) Help prevent tax increases. By surreptitiously supporting your government, blatant tax increases need not be imposed. 

We are in the midst of a currency war. Other nations are no longer supporting your government's growing overspend by collecting our fiat - it is now up to you.

Ask not what your currency emitter can do for you, but what you can do for your currency emitter.

If you do not take up the challenge, there will be only one option, and that is not to cut spending to limits of our current income - that would be disastrous for this country. We have made promises to the underprivileged, the highly privileged, and all our friends in between, and we must keep our promises.  No, the only viable option would be to print those promises. Can you now see the importance of you not spending excess money?

It is your duty to be the last man standing at your post in this war. Abandoning your currency will be considered an act of treason. Saving in anything other than fiat will be considered desertion.

Your country needs you . Your currency needs you. Socialism needs you.

Exponential Inflation vs Hyperbolic Inflation

Chris Martenson has an interesting article entitled Our Money is Dying over at Peak Prosperity.  In it, he talks about the "inflationary spectrum", which consists of:

1. Non-inflationary price increases
2. Simple inflation
3. Loss of confidence in money
4. Hyperinflation, and finally
5. Currency destruction.  

See the article for a description of each.

Rather than seeing a single "inflationary spectrum", I instead see two quite distinct inflationary forces - one that is exponential, and one that is hyperbolic.  Let's briefly take a look at an exponential and hyperbolic functions (graphs):

The shapes, slopes, and positioning of the graphs come in many forms.  The key difference between exponential and hyperbolic, as explained by Wikipedia, is that:

• exponential growth grows to infinity as time goes to infinity (but is always finite for finite time),
• hyperbolic growth has a singularity in finite time (grows to infinity at a finite time).

Put another way, hyperbolic growth trajectories have a D-Day - a day of reckoning.

Now, relating this back to inflation, I have a crude (yet instructive) Inflation formula:

Super so far

Nearly 2 years ago, I setup my Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF), so today I thought I'd take some time to reflect on whether or not that was a good decision.  For US readers, I believe that Super(annuation) is similar in concept to your 401k, and the "Self Managed" part means that you manage it yourself, as the Trustee of the Fund.

When it comes to Super, people generally fall into one of two categories - those that give a shit, and those that don't.   Everyone starts off in the "those that don't" camp, until one of a number of things happen:

• You become self employed, at which time you (as a Company) start paying yourself (as an Employee) and must make the mandatory Super contributions (to yourself).
• You realise that you have a significant amount of money in your Super Fund.

At which point, you start to wonder why you're letting someone else manage your money, and you start to analyse your fund managers' [sic plural] performance, and their fees, and decide that you could do better yourself - even if you didn't do anything.

Welcome to stage II in life: Giving a shit about your Super.

KWN Turk Gold Charts

There is an article over in King World News called The Most Important and Extraordinary Chart for 2012. Here's the chart:

Turk argues that Gold Stocks are cheap relative Gold, based on the above chart.

I disagree, and here's why.

Optimal Investing Strategy

This blog is about my search for the ultimate investing strategy - the one that, in theory, I could put on auto-pilot, and watch my wealth grow.  My inklings at the start of this journey was that Value Investing in equities would prove to be the ultimate investing strategy, and along the journey I would learn an optimal algorithmic implementation that I could automate.

I still believe this to be the case, however, today, I do not see much value in equities. More so, the most undervalued asset at the moment, appears to be gold.

But, the point I want to make in this post is the gaming meta-strategy: 

• Find the game with the highest expectation value.
• Play it in the optimal way.

Peak-Oil Gold Price

Priced in gold, do oil producers want a high oil price or a low oil price?

The answer, I think, depends on how much oil the oil producers have left.  And just to clarify, when I refer to "oil producers", I'm not talking about individual companies, I'm talking about all oil producers, or, at least, the middle eastern collective of oil producers.

Initially, when the oil producers have lots of oil, they would want a very high price for their oil.

Counter intuitively though, when their oil  reserves start to run low, they would want a lower price for their oil.

World Currency Systems

The current world currency system is the US dollar.  This means that a) most global goods (including oil) are priced in US dollars, b) most international trades are transacted in US dollars, and c) many (people, banks, nations) save in US dollars. Not surprisingly, the primary beneficiary of this arrangement is the United States, as they get to export "dollars" in exchange for real goods and services.

So, why does the rest of the world put up with such a one-sided system? And, is there a better system?

It seems to me that countries like Australia put up with this system because they need the US for protection.  This essentially amounts to a protection racket being run by the US.  There are many countries in a similar situation to Australia.

Other countries support this system out of pure fear, and rightly so.  To date, the two countries that have tried to side-step the US dollar for international oil trade have been Iraq and Libya, and we know how that ended for them.

Xmas reading, asset allocation, and how much gold?

Down in the bottom right hand corner of this blog, I keep a list of Interesting People.  Generally, what qualifies someone as sufficiently interesting to make the list is that they have published a collection of works that are worth reading.  Someone that I recently added to the list is Michael Mauboussin.  He has written some interesting articles in the investing game theory space, and a particularly relevant article on the importance of position sizing (asset allocation) in investing called Size Matters.

The point of that article is that, just because you have a strategy with a positive expectation value, doesn't mean that you should go all in on your first bet.  You might lose, and then you'd have nothing.  Clearly, this is not the best way to play a game that, in theory, gives you an edge and should allow you play profitably over the long term.

ASX Investor Hour with Jim Berg

Once a month, the ASX run lunch time investor hour seminars in each capital city in Australia, and occasionally, they are worth going to.  Today's was called "When you should reinvest and how you should do it" by Jim Berg, and it sounded interesting enough, so I went along.

Before hand though, I checked out his website, and this made me somewhat skeptical of the seminar.  Basically, I figured it was going to be a sales pitch, and sure enough, his book was on sale as I entered the foyer and for $30 a month I could subscribe to his newsletter.

Still, I took some notes, so here goes: