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July Consumer Metrics data

I've long been a fan of the Comsumer Metrics Institute. They've been showing the US consumer "double dip" recession for well over a year now - yet the official numbers have only just been "adjusted" to reflect this.

Looking at the latest data, it is surprising to see an uptick that may indicate the end of the contraction.




Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel. Time will tell. The Consumer Metrics Institute will probably give a leading indicator either way..
Posted by Delusional Investing at Sunday, July 31, 2011
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3 comments:

  1. ScheduleflowJuly 31, 2011 at 6:44 PM

    I don't see the reason behind the correlation to 2008 trends and 2010 trends?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Delusional InvestingAugust 1, 2011 at 1:37 AM

    They initially overlaid the 2008 contraction with the 2010 contraction so that the two could be compared visually. Initially this showed 2008 as severe and swift verses 2010 as less severe but more drawn out. It currently shows that the 2010 contraction is far bigger (area under graph) than 2008, despite 2008 getting all the headlines, and all the "green shoots recovery" talk througout 2010.

    I've no idea why the sudden return to growth though.. I was hoping their summary report would discuss it, but not a peep..

    ReplyDelete
  3. Delusional InvestingAugust 6, 2011 at 3:11 AM

    Here is the commentary I was waiting for: http://www.consumerindexes.com/2011-08-05_commentary.html

    ReplyDelete

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