Predictions for the Australian Housing Market Bubble

Wow - an Australian first. A dinner party discussion about the Australian housing market where the bears outnumbered the bulls.  It was incredible.  One only needs to go back a couple of years and it would have been the unanimous position that house prices in Australian could not go down, let alone that Australian house prices would go down.

The arguments given by the lone bull were the pretty typical, but we weren't convinced. We knew all about the Australian Housing Market Myths.

Anyway, for posterity, I thought I'd put the survey results here. The question was on the change in the median Melbourne house price over the coming years.

	Person A	Person B	Person C	Person D	Person E
1 year	0	-10%	0	-5%	0
2 year	+10% to +15%	-15%	-15%	-10%	-10%
3 year	+17% to +35%	-25% to -30%	-30%	-15%	-15%

Now, I would never use a voting system to determine correctness on a given issue, as usually I'm the delusional one getting out-voted. However, from the survey results above we can conclude one thing for sure - at least 1 person at the table was delusional.